Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grimsby · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Rochdale 0-0 Grimsby, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Rochdale 2-2 Grimsby
Original prediction
Grimsby
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.11 | 29.9% | 34.6% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.5% | 28.0% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 43.6% | 37.4% | -6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.51 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Projected Score
Rochdale 0–0 Grimsby
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Grimsby
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Grimsby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RochdaleLDLWW
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GrimsbyLLDLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
RochdaleGrimsby
39.4Attack39.4
54.5Defence60.6
42.4Form39.4
46.9Power48.3
1.00xG0.98