Rochdalevs
Gillingham
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rochdale · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rochdale 1-4 Gillingham
Original prediction
Rochdale
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 44.7% | 38.6% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.8% | 30.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.37 | 27.5% | 31.4% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Rochdale
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Rochdale has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RochdaleWLLLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
GillinghamDDDLL
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
RochdaleGillingham
33.3Attack16.7
50.0Defence58.3
25.0Form25.0
36.5Power36.2
1.21xG1.03