Rochdalevs
Accrington ST
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rochdale 0-5 Accrington ST
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.49 | 37.3% | 35.1% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.9% | 29.6% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 34.8% | 35.2% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
29.6%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RochdaleDLDLW
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Accrington STDWDDW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
RochdaleAccrington ST
41.7Attack47.2
52.8Defence55.6
41.7Form41.7
46.8Power50.1
1.18xG1.23