Rio Avevs
Sporting CP
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 8/28/2026, 7:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sporting CP · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rio Ave 0-4 Sporting CP
Original prediction
Sporting CP
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.83 | 10.7% | 26.7% | 16.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.41 | 17.4% | 24.6% | 7.2 pts |
| Away | 1.31 | 71.9% | 48.7% | -23.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Sporting CP
Probability
48.7%
Model confidence
48.7%
Sporting CP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20