Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rio Ave · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rio Ave 3-2 Nacional
Original prediction
Rio Ave
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 41.6% | 37.8% | -3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 28.7% | 27.6% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.16 | 29.6% | 34.6% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Rio Ave
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Rio Ave has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Rio AveLDLLW
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
NacionalLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Rio AveNacional
23.8Attack33.3
28.6Defence28.6
19.0Form19.0
26.7Power29.6
1.34xG1.33