Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Famalicao · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rio Ave 0-4 Famalicao
Original prediction
Famalicao
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.67 | 25.6% | 28.0% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.4% | 27.6% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.04 | 46.0% | 44.4% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Famalicao
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Famalicao has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Rio AveWWLDL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FamalicaoLLWDD
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Rio AveFamalicao
33.3Attack41.7
29.2Defence54.2
29.2Form29.2
33.2Power42.0
1.06xG1.58