Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estrela · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rio Ave 3-3 Estrela
Original prediction
Estrela
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 34.9% | 25.6% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 29.2% | 23.9% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 35.9% | 50.5% | 14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.20 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Estrela
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Estrela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Rio AveLLWLL
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
EstrelaWDWDD
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Rio AveEstrela
13.3Attack73.3
26.7Defence40.0
20.0Form60.0
23.5Power61.4
1.15xG2.23