Riga Marinersvs
Rīgas FS II
COMPLETEDLatvia · 1. Liga · 8/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga Mariners · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-0 (13%), 5-0 (12%), 3-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Riga Mariners 3-1 Rīgas FS II
Original prediction
Riga Mariners
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.10 | 82.9% | 89.8% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 8.16 | 11.2% | 6.9% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 15.21 | 6.0% | 3.3% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–013%
- 2.5–012%
- 3.3–012%
Predicted outcome
Riga Mariners
Probability
89.8%
Model confidence
89.8%
Riga Mariners has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 8 · GA 22 · avg 1.60/4.40