Rep. Of Irelandvs
Israel
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/4/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rep. Of Ireland · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rep. Of Ireland 1-1 Israel
Original prediction
Rep. Of Ireland
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 48.0% | 50.6% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.8% | 26.2% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.91 | 24.2% | 23.1% | -1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Rep. Of Ireland
Probability
50.6%
Model confidence
50.6%
Rep. Of Ireland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60