Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
O'Higgins · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Recoleta 1-3 O'Higgins
Original prediction
O'Higgins
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.78 | 24.1% | 27.9% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.3% | 24.4% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 1.77 | 51.5% | 47.7% | -3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
O'Higgins
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
O'Higgins has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RecoletaWDWDL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
O'HigginsLDLWW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
RecoletaO'Higgins
33.3Attack66.7
46.7Defence53.3
33.3Form53.3
40.6Power58.6
1.28xG1.81