Real Salt Lakevs
San Jose Earthquakes
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/15/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Salt Lake · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Salt Lake 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes
Original prediction
Real Salt Lake
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 48.7% | 36.4% | -12.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 24.2% | 27.4% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 27.2% | 36.2% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.89 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Real Salt Lake
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Real Salt Lake has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20