Real Estelívs
Managua
COMPLETEDNicaragua · Primera Division · 10/26/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Managua · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Estelí 2-1 Managua
Original prediction
Managua
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 42.3% | 34.6% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.5% | 27.0% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 30.3% | 38.4% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Managua
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Managua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00