Racing Montevideovs
Penarol
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 10/4/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Racing Montevideo 0-0 Penarol, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Racing Montevideo 0-1 Penarol
Original prediction
Penarol
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.58 | 25.4% | 28.5% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.4% | 32.2% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 44.2% | 39.3% | -4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.9 pts
Projected Score
Racing Montevideo 0–0 Penarol
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Racing MontevideoLDLWL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
PenarolDWDWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Racing MontevideoPenarol
40.0Attack58.1
73.3Defence72.0
58.9Form67.7
59.5Power66.7
0.70xG0.86