Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: QPR 0-0 Swansea, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
QPR 5-0 Swansea
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.47 | 37.8% | 31.5% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.3% | 30.7% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 33.9% | 37.8% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Projected Score
QPR 0–0 Swansea
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.7%
Model confidence
37.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
QPRLWDDD
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
SwanseaLWWWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
QPRSwansea
45.5Attack48.5
63.6Defence75.8
51.5Form69.7
54.9Power66.2
0.73xG1.00