Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
QPR · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: QPR 1-0 Derby, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
QPR 4-1 Derby
Original prediction
QPR
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 56.4% | 51.1% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 24.4% | 27.3% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 4.89 | 19.2% | 21.6% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Projected Score
QPR 1–0 Derby
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
QPR
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
51.1%
QPR has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
QPRDDDDL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
DerbyDDLLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
QPRDerby
40.7Attack29.6
70.4Defence44.4
51.9Form22.2
56.9Power34.5
1.56xG0.50