Progresovs
Racing Montevideo
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Racing Montevideo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Progreso 0-1 Racing Montevideo, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Progreso 2-1 Racing Montevideo
Original prediction
Racing Montevideo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.81 | 23.9% | 18.8% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.8% | 29.8% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.93 | 47.3% | 51.4% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Projected Score
Progreso 0–1 Racing Montevideo
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Racing Montevideo
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Racing Montevideo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00