Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Juventud · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Progreso 0-0 Juventud, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Progreso 2-0 Juventud
Original prediction
Juventud
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 12:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.15 | 28.8% | 26.6% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.3% | 28.9% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 43.9% | 44.4% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.6 pts
Projected Score
Progreso 0–0 Juventud
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Juventud
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Juventud has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ProgresoDLWWL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
JuventudWWDDW
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ProgresoJuventud
29.2Attack38.5
51.0Defence59.4
30.2Form41.7
39.9Power48.5
0.74xG1.06