Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Danubio · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Progreso 0-0 Danubio, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Progreso 1-0 Danubio
Original prediction
Danubio
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.95 | 30.8% | 28.3% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.4% | 32.5% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 38.7% | 39.2% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Projected Score
Progreso 0–0 Danubio
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Danubio
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Danubio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ProgresoLLLLW
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
DanubioDDLDL
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ProgresoDanubio
24.0Attack29.3
49.3Defence58.7
21.3Form32.0
34.8Power42.0
0.65xG0.83