Progresovs
Club Nacional
COMPLETEDUruguay · Copa Uruguay · 9/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Club Nacional · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Progreso 0-1 Club Nacional
Original prediction
Club Nacional
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.84 | 18.6% | 32.9% | 14.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.0% | 27.6% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 54.4% | 39.4% | -14.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Club Nacional
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Club Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00