Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Progreso 0-0 Cerro, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Progreso 1-3 Cerro
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.5% | 37.2% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.96 | 30.7% | 33.0% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 30.8% | 29.8% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Projected Score
Progreso 0–0 Cerro
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.0%
Model confidence
37.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ProgresoWLWLL
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CerroLWDDL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ProgresoCerro
24.7Attack23.5
53.1Defence50.6
27.2Form35.8
38.1Power39.7
0.78xG0.65