Probiy Horodenkavs
Yarud Mariupol'
COMPLETEDUkraine · Persha Liga · 9/13/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Yarud Mariupol' · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Probiy Horodenka 0-2 Yarud Mariupol'
Original prediction
Yarud Mariupol'
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.90 | 23.0% | 26.3% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.7% | 27.3% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.79 | 50.3% | 46.5% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Yarud Mariupol'
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Yarud Mariupol' has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00