Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Millwall · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Preston 0-1 Millwall
Original prediction
Millwall
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.88 | 32.5% | 29.9% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 27.7% | 27.1% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 39.8% | 43.1% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Millwall
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Millwall has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PrestonDLLWL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MillwallDDLLW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
PrestonMillwall
33.3Attack62.5
37.5Defence37.5
16.7Form45.8
32.5Power47.9
1.31xG2.04