Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lincoln · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Preston 0-1 Lincoln
Original prediction
Lincoln
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 | 40.7% | 34.6% | -6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.3% | 28.6% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.93 | 32.0% | 36.8% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Lincoln
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Lincoln has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PrestonLWLLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LincolnLDDWW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PrestonLincoln
33.3Attack26.7
33.3Defence60.0
16.7Form33.3
31.3Power43.0
1.05xG1.23