Prestonvs
Bristol City
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/1/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bristol City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Preston 1-3 Bristol City
Original prediction
Bristol City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.85 | 33.0% | 32.5% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 28.2% | 27.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.43 | 38.8% | 40.1% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Bristol City
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Bristol City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40