Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Blackburn · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Preston 2-1 Blackburn
Original prediction
Blackburn
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 38.5% | 30.2% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 29.2% | 27.3% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 32.3% | 42.5% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Blackburn
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Blackburn has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PrestonLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BlackburnDLLWD
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PrestonBlackburn
25.0Attack41.7
25.0Defence58.3
0.0Form41.7
21.5Power50.3
1.03xG1.58