Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portugal · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portugal 1-0 Wales
Original prediction
Portugal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.17 | 81.1% | 57.0% | -24.1 pts |
| Draw | 7.34 | 13.0% | 22.5% | 9.6 pts |
| Away | 16.03 | 5.9% | 20.4% | 14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Portugal
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Portugal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PortugalWWWDD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
WalesLDDLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PortugalWales
73.3Attack50.0
63.3Defence77.8
70.0Form66.7
69.3Power66.5
1.63xG0.97