Portsmouthvs
Sheffield Utd
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/14/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portsmouth 3-2 Sheffield Utd
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 40.6% | 34.9% | -5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.3% | 29.8% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 31.1% | 35.2% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
29.8%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PortsmouthLDDWL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Sheffield UtdWLLLW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PortsmouthSheffield Utd
37.5Attack44.4
54.2Defence59.3
33.3Form44.4
43.3Power51.0
1.02xG1.16