Portsmouthvs
Millwall
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/24/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portsmouth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portsmouth 2-1 Millwall
Original prediction
Portsmouth
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.46 | 38.0% | 39.2% | 1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 28.7% | 27.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 33.3% | 33.1% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Portsmouth
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Portsmouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40