Portsmouthvs
Derby
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/1/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portsmouth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portsmouth 0-2 Derby
Original prediction
Portsmouth
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 48.3% | 47.6% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.5% | 25.8% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.88 | 24.3% | 26.6% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Portsmouth
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Portsmouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00