Portsmouthvs
Cardiff
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cardiff · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portsmouth 2-0 Cardiff
Original prediction
Cardiff
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 40.4% | 35.9% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 27.0% | 26.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.86 | 32.6% | 37.4% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Cardiff
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Cardiff has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PortsmouthLLWLL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CardiffLDLDD
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
PortsmouthCardiff
41.7Attack55.6
33.3Defence44.4
25.0Form33.3
35.5Power48.3
1.40xG1.55