Portland Timbersvs
Charlotte
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/25/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portland Timbers · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portland Timbers 3-2 Charlotte
Original prediction
Portland Timbers
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 48.9% | 37.5% | -11.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 23.1% | 26.6% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 3.33 | 28.1% | 35.9% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Portland Timbers
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Portland Timbers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80