Portland Timbersvs
Austin
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 8/30/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portland Timbers · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portland Timbers 1-2 Austin
Original prediction
Portland Timbers
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 60.1% | 63.5% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.46 | 21.1% | 17.9% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 5.01 | 18.8% | 18.5% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Portland Timbers
Probability
63.5%
Model confidence
63.5%
Portland Timbers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40