Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grimsby · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Port Vale 0-1 Grimsby, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Port Vale 1-0 Grimsby
Original prediction
Grimsby
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.58 | 35.9% | 30.8% | -5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.6% | 30.5% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 35.5% | 38.7% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Projected Score
Port Vale 0–1 Grimsby
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Grimsby
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Grimsby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Port ValeWDLWL
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
GrimsbyDLLLW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Port ValeGrimsby
14.3Attack48.1
57.1Defence63.0
23.8Form48.1
35.1Power54.9
0.74xG1.23