Port Valevs
Exeter City
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Port Vale 0-0 Exeter City, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Port Vale 1-0 Exeter City
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 45.6% | 35.5% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.6% | 30.8% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 26.8% | 33.7% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Projected Score
Port Vale 0–0 Exeter City
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.8%
Model confidence
35.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Port ValeLLDDL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Exeter CityDWDLW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Port ValeExeter City
13.3Attack26.7
53.3Defence73.3
13.3Form33.3
30.2Power46.1
0.83xG1.00