Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Crewe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Port Vale 0-0 Crewe
Original prediction
Crewe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 42.0% | 33.7% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.6% | 28.4% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 30.4% | 37.9% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.37 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Crewe
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Crewe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Port ValeDLLWW
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CreweLWWWD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Port ValeCrewe
16.7Attack33.3
50.0Defence100.0
16.7Form100.0
31.3Power83.3
1.01xG1.32