Port Valevs
Chesterfield
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chesterfield · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Port Vale 1-0 Chesterfield
Original prediction
Chesterfield
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 34.3% | 28.4% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 27.2% | 27.2% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 38.5% | 44.4% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Chesterfield
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Chesterfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40