Pobedavs
Spartak Nalchik
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 1 · 9/26/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pobeda · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pobeda 4-3 Spartak Nalchik
Original prediction
Pobeda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 45.7% | 43.1% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 27.8% | 28.1% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.38 | 26.5% | 28.8% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.96 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Pobeda
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Pobeda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60