Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pobeda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pobeda 2-1 Astrakhan
Original prediction
Pobeda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 58.4% | 64.5% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 21.0% | 18.8% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.39 | 20.6% | 16.7% | -3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Pobeda
Probability
64.5%
Model confidence
64.5%
Pobeda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PobedaWLWLL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
AstrakhanDLLDW
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PobedaAstrakhan
63.3Attack41.3
55.0Defence47.6
55.0Form36.5
56.6Power42.8
2.22xG0.97