Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Plymouth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Plymouth are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Coventry are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Plymouth hold a 65.0-point power-rating edge (88.7 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.6% in the League Cup, while Plymouth holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Plymouth
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
11.6%
Plymouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60