Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pisa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pisa 3-1 Cremonese
Original prediction
Pisa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 43.8% | 49.7% | 5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 29.3% | 26.5% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 26.9% | 23.8% | -3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Pisa
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Pisa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PisaWLDLL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
CremoneseDWWDD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PisaCremonese
61.1Attack27.8
55.6Defence61.1
55.6Form33.3
57.1Power42.6
1.56xG0.83