Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pisa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pisa 2-1 Catanzaro
Original prediction
Pisa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 50.2% | 39.5% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.4% | 24.9% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 4.37 | 21.4% | 35.6% | 14.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.86 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Pisa
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Pisa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PisaLDWLD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
CatanzaroLDWWW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
PisaCatanzaro
44.7Attack53.7
52.6Defence52.8
40.4Form52.0
48.2Power54.1
1.33xG1.42