Piratasvs
Venados FC
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/19/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piratas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Piratas 2-1 Venados FC
Original prediction
Piratas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 56.1% | 50.9% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.1% | 22.5% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 4.38 | 20.8% | 26.6% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Piratas
Probability
50.9%
Model confidence
50.9%
Piratas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 14 · GA 14 · avg 2.80/2.80