Piratasvs
Tepatitlán
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/18/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piratas · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (14%), 4-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Piratas 3-0 Tepatitlán
Original prediction
Piratas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.16 | 78.6% | 83.5% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 6.80 | 13.4% | 11.3% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 11.42 | 8.0% | 5.3% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–014%
- 3.4–010%
Predicted outcome
Piratas
Probability
83.5%
Model confidence
83.5%
Piratas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40