Piratasvs
Correcaminos Uat
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/6/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piratas · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Piratas 4-1 Correcaminos Uat
Original prediction
Piratas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 58.8% | 38.5% | -20.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 23.4% | 25.9% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 5.16 | 17.7% | 35.5% | 17.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Piratas
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Piratas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20