Piratasvs
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
SCHEDULEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piratas · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Piratas are 2W-1D-1L in their last 4 (LWWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded, while Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 1 of those 9 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Piratas hold a 12.2-point power-rating edge (58.9 v 46.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.3% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Piratas holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Piratas
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Piratas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.50
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20