Piratasvs
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piratas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Piratas 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Piratas 4-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Original prediction
Piratas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 72.2% | 61.2% | -11.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.09 | 18.0% | 23.6% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 9.41 | 9.8% | 15.2% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.0 pts
Projected Score
Piratas 1–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Piratas
Probability
61.2%
Model confidence
61.2%
Piratas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PiratasLWDWD
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Alebrijes de OaxacaLLWLD
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PiratasAlebrijes de Oaxaca
40.0Attack26.7
66.7Defence40.0
50.0Form33.3
53.0Power36.4
1.63xG0.48