Philadelphia Unionvs
Real Salt Lake
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/10/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Philadelphia Union · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Philadelphia Union 2-1 Real Salt Lake
Original prediction
Philadelphia Union
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 70.1% | 50.1% | -20.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.40 | 17.4% | 24.9% | 7.4 pts |
| Away | 7.55 | 12.4% | 25.0% | 12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Philadelphia Union
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Philadelphia Union has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 20 · GA 5 · avg 4.00/1.00
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80