Philadelphia Unionvs
Orlando City SC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/26/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Philadelphia Union · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 3-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Philadelphia Union 4-2 Orlando City SC
Original prediction
Philadelphia Union
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 62.1% | 50.3% | -11.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.82 | 19.4% | 24.3% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 5.07 | 18.5% | 25.3% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.3–27%
Predicted outcome
Philadelphia Union
Probability
50.3%
Model confidence
50.3%
Philadelphia Union has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 19 · GA 4 · avg 3.80/0.80
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60