Philadelphia Unionvs
FC Cincinnati
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/9/2026, 11:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Philadelphia Union · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 3-2 (6%), 2-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Philadelphia Union 5-0 FC Cincinnati
Original prediction
Philadelphia Union
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 55.7% | 47.7% | -8.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 21.9% | 18.8% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 4.18 | 22.5% | 33.5% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.3–26%
- 3.2–16%
Predicted outcome
Philadelphia Union
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
Philadelphia Union has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40