Philadelphia Unionvs
CF Montreal
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/5/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Philadelphia Union · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Philadelphia Union 2-0 CF Montreal
Original prediction
Philadelphia Union
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 65.1% | 59.9% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.78 | 19.6% | 18.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 6.15 | 15.2% | 21.3% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Philadelphia Union
Probability
59.9%
Model confidence
59.9%
Philadelphia Union has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40