Peterboroughvs
Barnsley
COMPLETEDEngland · League Cup · 9/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Peterborough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Peterborough 3-3 Barnsley
Original prediction
Peterborough
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 37.1% | 44.2% | 7.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.9% | 26.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 35.0% | 29.4% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.34 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Peterborough
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Peterborough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80